With the recent conflict between Russia and Georgia, many people are trying to analyze how this entire ordeal
came about. You can easily classify me in this group of people because of my deep interest in the Caucasus region. I was lucky enough to work on a project for the US Army, where I, along with a team of analysts, examined the spread of violence in the North Caucasus and its relation to the insurgency in Chechnya. While the South Caucasus region was not examined in our formal presentation, the other analysts and I could not possibly overlook the situation between Georgia and Russia. Now when I look back on that project and I analyze the recent events, it is easy (and maybe too obvious) to say that this conflict is all about timing.
Prior to the movement of Georgian troops into the separatist region of South Ossetia the tension between Russia and Georgia was no secret. Russia has been steadily increasing its presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, much to the dismay of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Following a 1,000 troop joint military exercise between the US and Georgia in June, Russia quickly amassed 8,000 troops in the North Caucasus region bordering Georgia. Russia was effectively telling the US, “we are far more capable of acting in this region than you, and we don’t respect your ability to do anything substantial in the Caucasus.” Another factor to consider is that in November of last year, over 100,000 people–around the same number of people who demonstrated during the 2003 Rose Revolution–took to the streets to protest against the rule of President Saakashvili, causing Saakashvili to declare a state of emergency. This instability in Georgia further allowed Russia to exert its influence within Georgia, particularly the breakaway regions. With all this going on, it begs the question, what was Saakashvili thinking?
As stated above, the only answer I could come up with is that it must be all about timing. In regard to
President Saakashvili Overplayed His Hand
Georgia’s timing, President Saakashvili has received much criticism within Georgia and is actively trying to gain admission into NATO. However, with all the recent tension between Russia and Georgia, Saakashvili would have been foolish not to expect Russia to give a strong response. Considering the timing, Saakashvili was likely counting on a greater response by NATO countries, in hopes that it would further solidify Georgia into the NATO fold. It is also possible that Saakashvili thought that by timing the movement of troops with the Olympics, Russia would drag its feet in trying to make a response. Sorry Mike, neither happened.
In terms of Russia’s timing, it was the perfect chance to exert their power along their periphery. Russia had wanted to make a statement within Georgia, and the movement of troops by Georgia opened the door for a response by the Russian military which was already assembled in the North Caucasus. Also, the US is currently unable to effectively respond–save for rhetoric–to the conflict due to their current campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is also important to note that the timing of the Olympics allowed Russia to fly more under the radar in the media. All in all, a perfect storm for Russia to make the move it had wanted to make for some time now. Trust me, the Ukraine is watching this all very closely.
For further insight please check out:
Stratfor’s strong analysis of all the events
ADDITION: I have seen various timelines for this conflict, but I am still searching for a definitive one. If any one knows of one please send it my way, because it would most definitely affect my analysis and viewpoints regarding the issue.
